The state and national unemployment rate continues to inch its way downward.
North Carolina’s smoothed seasonally adjusted — a statistical method of smoothing out wide swings — unemployment rate decreased 0.2 percent from October to November to 9.1 percent. The national rate also dropped the same amount to 7.7 percent.
The rates have dropped more significantly, compared with last year in November. Since a year ago, the state rate has fallen 1.3 percentage points, while the national rate fell 1 percent.
But they haven’t fallen enough to make the economy grow, said Randall E. Parker, an economics professor at East Carolina University.
“I would love to see (the national rate) go below 6.5 percent,” he said, adding the National Reserves uses that figure, as well.
Parker said it would take 150,000 more jobs a month simply to absorb normal demographic change, such as people aging out of the system, students graduating from college and immigration flow.
“Where’s the momentum?” he asked, rhetorically. “I don’t see any more momentum to make the economy grow. And if you don’t have growth, job creation becomes problematic.”
The number of North Carolinians employed (smoothed seasonally adjusted) increased by 34,884 to more than 4.3 million since November and 120,527 from a year ago. There were 8,572 less people unemployed, or 1.9 percent. The civilian labor force grew by 26,312 — 0.6 percent — to more than 4.7 million.
Nationally, unemployed persons decreased by 229,000, or 1.9 percent, and the civilian labor force decreased by 350,000, or 0.2 percent.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics information in 2012 is not directly comparable with previous years’ data as it did not revise the historical data based on population controls reflected in the 2010 Census.
Non-farm industry employment, seasonally adjusted, increased by 30,600 to nearly 4 million from October to November. Since February 2010, when the state’s unemployment rate reached its highest mark of 11.4 percent, North Carolina has gained 145,300 jobs. Non-farm jobs increased by 60,000 from a year ago.
Industry employment estimates are subject to large seasonal fluctuations, and seasonal adjustments may not fully capture the seasonal trend. Over-the-year changes in both adjusted and non-adjusted data are a better indicator of the labor market.
Non-farm employment level in November — not seasonally adjusted —of more than 4 million was 28,700, or 0.7 percent, higher than the October revised employment level of slightly under 4 million.
Margaret Fisher can be reached at 252-559-1082 or Margaret.Fisher@Kinston.com.
Breakout box:
Nov. 2011 May 2012 Oct. 2012 Nov. 2012
Statewide: 10.4 9.7 9.3 9.1
National: 8.7 8.2 7.9 7.7
