A recent intelligence report outlining possible scenarios for what the world may look like in 2030 has some interesting results.
First and foremost, the U.S. — in all likelihood — will still be a top power in 2030. However, the report goes on to say that the U.S. will not wield quite the same amount of influence it has in the past century.
We will still be “first among equals,” according to the conclusions of “Alternative Worlds,” released by the National Intelligence Council. The report points to our continued military might and diplomatic influence as reasons for our place at the top of the world.
The report also made specific note that we are at a “critical juncture” in time where technological advances are quickly advancing, competition for resources is growing increasingly competitive and a middle class is emerging in countries around the world.
The rise of a middle class could be a game changer as we move forward. This presents serious competition over food, water, gasoline and many other commodities. The growing middle class will also increase demand for water and food by more than 35 percent over the next couple of decades, the report indicates.
And while most of us assume a large, well-fed, middle class ensures democracy or “Western thinking,” nothing could be further from the truth.
“Historically, the rise of middle classes has led to populism and dictatorships, as well as pressures for greater democracy,” the authors of the report stated. Meanwhile, that global growth “disguises growing pressures on the middle class in Western economies,” including international competition for higher-skilled jobs.
What scares me is the report essentially pins our hopes of being able to provide enough food and water on another technological leap such as genetically modified crops, precision agriculture and advanced water irrigation. I hate to think what may happen if we can not find these advances in time.
There is another section of this report that bothers me even more. Advances in weaponry and such will provide small groups the opportunity to obtain “destructive technologies” that, up to now, have been only available to countries.
“With more widespread access to lethal and destructive technologies, individuals who are experts in such key areas as cyber systems might sell their services to the highest bidder,” Council Chairman Christopher Kojm said during a briefing on the report. “Terrorists might focus less on mass casualties and more on causing widespread economic and financial disruptions.”
Oh my.
Clearly, we will need to be diligent in our efforts to track, monitor and record all weapons of mass destruction.
The report goes on to paint a rosier scenario for poverty and those living within its clutches. Most regions, with sub-Saharan Africabeing the lone exception, are expected to sharply decrease the number of people living in poverty.
However, one area that the report remains befuddled with is the Middle East. The report states the region “will be a very different place in 2030 but the possibilities run a wide gamut from fragile growth and development to chronic instability and potential regional conflicts.”
Ah, not much there. I could’ve got that bold prediction from a box of Cracker Jacks. Do Cracker Jacks still have a prize in them? I digress.
The gist of the entire report is that much of the future remains up to us. We are present in the here and now and need to start making better, more forward-thinking decisions. Whether we are talking about the environment, technology or politics, we need to start thinking more as humans and less as “us and them.”
I hope future generations can find even more peace than my generation or those before me.
Richard Clark is the universal desk chief for Halifax ENC and his column appears in this space every Sunday. You can reach him at 910-219-8452 or at Richard.Clark@jdnews.com.