What will the Republican Party look like in 10 years?
To me, this a very interesting question. The current Republican Party has become entrenched, uncompromising and unwilling to work with anyone not in complete agreement. Lee Atwater has been replaced by Karl Rove and with it the Republican center has shifted further to right.
Our system is set up on the premise of compromise. At the core of our governmental system is a willingness to work together toward a higher goal. There are simply no statesmen remaining in political power on either side. Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neal couldn’t have been further from one another ideologically; however, the two found common ground and worked together. Where is that today?
The Democratic Party is still one of this nature. Need proof? Back in 2001 12 Democratic senators voted for President George W. Bush’s tax cuts. 12! When was the last time 12 Republicans voted for anything President Obama has sent to the floor?
Beginning with the attempt to impeach President Bill Clinton, the Grand Old Party has used every tactic in the book to remain in control. From investigations to shutting down the government to constantly using filibusters, which used to be reserved for rare occasions, Republicans seem more intent to disrupt the working of Congress and threatened the power of the office of the presidency than actually solve problems.
While these tactics have been successful on a smaller scale, national election victories have been elusive for the Grand Old Party. Republican candidates for president have lost four of the last six elections with one of its two wins in serious question.
So what is the problem? Why can’t they win the big one? Who would’ve ever thought that Obama would win so thoroughly last November? It seemed the stage has been set up perfectly for the Republicans. Poor economy, wars dragging on and, lest we forget, Obama is still a minority. Yet what happened?
I believe we will begin to see a transformation of sorts in the Republican Party. What I see happening is a conflict on the horizon. And maybe conflict is too strong a word, but a changing of the guard may be coming.
The “Old Guard” cannot win any longer. This has become increasingly clear. The extreme conservatives can and always win in local elections. By extreme conservative, I am referring to conservative fiscally, socially and politically. These guys are cut from the Jesse Helms cloth. Molded by years of Rush Limbaugh ranting, Jerry Falwell (who spawned Ralph Reid) worshipping, Ronald Reagan idolizing and “good ol’ days” remembering, this group has been in power on the right for quite some time.
However, more than anything else, what the past two presidential loses has shown is that this line of thinking can no longer win at a national level. I believe we are already seeing the seeds of change in the party’s display of Marco Rubio. I think Rubio may well represent the future of the GOP, still staunchly conservative fiscally and politically, but far more liberal socially.
I believe as we move forward we will begin to see more and more right-wing candidates that fit this mold. The rub will be how the “old guard” deals with these “right-wing liberals”?
We have already seen the Tea Party cause significant disruption for moderate conservatives with their extreme politics. Could we expect anything less if a Republican candidate came out in favor of, say, gay marriage? Be interesting to see what would happen, wouldn’t it?
One of the advantages the Republicans have enjoyed during the last few decades has been that its core thought, acted and voted as one. The Democrats have always been sort of like warring tribes. Some are there for this and some are there for that, but it’s pretty rare that all liberals agree on everything or even most things.
The only way Democrats have been able to compete is when they have a charismatic candidate that can bring all the warring tribes together — for example, Clinton and Obama. The problem for the Republicans is that our nation generally doesn’t support counterrevolution. Staying in one spot or looking back, as a general rule, doesn’t work for Americans. Right or wrong, most Americans like feeling as though we are moving forward, not stuck in the mud.
From a social standpoint, the Republican Party has been behind history for the last century. On every major social moment from women’s suffrage to civil rights to gay rights to immigration, the GOP has been behind. This is what is stalling the party for the future. Many voters, myself included, tend to be conservative-minded fiscally but cannot crowd intothe small corner the current Republican Party attempts to paint everyone into these days.
How the GOP handles immigration could go a long way toward deciding its fate over the next 20 years. Most Latinos tend to be conservative. They are fairly conservative socially. They tend to be a family-oriented, church-going group. So why do they always vote Democratic? I can tell you it’s not because of gay marriage. It’s due to the uncompromising manner in which the GOP handles immigration. No path to citizenship and automatic deportation will ingratiate the party to the Latinos.
“Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me:
I lift my lamp beside the golden door.”
Funny, it doesn’t say anything about a path or whatever, does it? It should be very interesting to see what happens in the next decade. I personally like Rubio and hope he goes on to bigger things, but more importantly, I hope he changes the Republican Party and updates its thinking and practices.
Richard Clark is Regional Desk Chief for ENC Communications’ daily newspapers, including The Free Press. He can be reached at Richard.Clark@jdnews.com.