It’s hard out there for a senator.
Specifically, an incumbent, red-state Democratic senator.
North Carolina’s U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan is up for her first reelection in 2014, after stunning then-incumbent Elizabeth Dole in the 2008 Democratic surge that saw the state go blue for the first time since 1976.
Historically, the party not in the White House does well in the mid-term elections of a reelected president. And with six red-state Democratic senators on the ballot, the opposition is gearing up.
GOP ready and rolling
The Senate Conservatives Fund, an organization founded by former U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, expressly intends to knock off each of them. After noting U.S. Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., declined to run again, SCF outlines its perception in a fundraising letter.
“The rest are trying to quickly reinvent themselves in the eyes of the voters,” SCF Executive Director Matt Hoskins states. “These liberals know that if they say they’re ‘moderate’ enough times, people will begin to believe it.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the party organization centered on electing GOP members to the U.S. Senate, sent out a detailed news release Feb. 28 claiming Hagan allowed sequestration cuts to hit North Carolina without doing enough to stop them.
Mike Rusher, chief of staff for the North Carolina Republican Party, admitted defeating Hagan is a priority.
“Kay Hagan is well aware that she has been repeatedly named one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the U.S. Senate,” Rusher said in an email to The Free Press. “Without question, the North Carolina Republican Party is dedicated to electing a Republican to the U.S. Senate in 2014.”
Add to that North Carolina generally broke Republican in 2012, and the situation becomes clearer.
ECU political science professor Thomas Eamon said political conditions can necessarily dictate action. In this case, trying to serve as a down-the-line moderate.
“Overall, I think there are a number of issues where she might, under what she would consider ideal circumstances, vote with the Democratic majority,” Eamon said.
He continued, saying because the circumstances are not ideal, there may be times “where she will take a different position, and part of that being to establish herself as an independent, a moderate.”
The media’s view
A National Journal survey placed Hagan as 48th most-liberal in the 100-member Senate, and 52nd most-conservative, sticking to the middle of that chamber. But working the center — genuinely, as Hagan’s staff would claim, or not, as her detractors would say — can result in blowback anyway.
A WCNC NBC 36 story from March 25 points out four major national media outlets mentioned Hagan and her targeted colleagues were not trying to trouble the waters on the budget, gay marriage and gun control.
Hagan communications director Sadie Weiner told the Charlotte TV station the senator’s stances could give the impression she’s “playing it safe.”
Then a Politico story, on March 29, suggested that the Red State 6, with the exception of Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu, are running scared.
Hagan state spokesman Chris Hayden said Hagan’s not paying attention to her critics.
“Sen. Hagan has never been concerned with what the pundits are saying, and she has never made decisions based on future elections. Sen. Hagan listens to North Carolinians and fights on their behalf every day,” Hayden stated in an email to The Free Press.
He continued, “She’s traveled to every corner of the state listening to the concerns middle-class families have expressed about jobs and the economy, and she’s brought their concerns and ideas back to Washington.”
Taking a risk?
Hagan’s backing of gay marriage March 27 would at one time have been considered a gutsy move. Now, all but two Democratic Senators have announced their support, joined by a number of Republicans.
But maybe it did take a little political chutzpah.
“Inevitably — and she’s probably calculated that on balance it’s the right thing to do — it will come up as an issue in the election,” Eamon said.
Indeed, it already did.
“Most recently on the issues of Obamacare and gay marriage,” Rusher said, “Hagan further demonstrated that she is out of touch with North Carolinians by taking positions that are heavily supported by a liberal left-wing minority.”
The prospective challenger
With no clear front-runner, and a favorite not yet announced, Republicans have been in the prime position of targeting Hagan without having to defend the positions of a particular candidate.
In that vacuum, Hagan’s sticking to her themes of the economy and the military, largely ignoring what’s been the GOP message against her so far.
“Her top priority is working to get North Carolinians back to work, which is why she fought for tax credits to hire unemployed veterans, it's why she has introduced bipartisan jobs bills,” Hayden said.
Eamon believes a solid potential nominee is N.C. Senate President pro tem Phil Berger. Berger could appeal to party activists who are reliable primary voters.
“He is very seriously eying it, and he is, certainly by the standards of the state, and to some degree the Republican Party, toward the more conservative end,” Eamon said.
If as a nominee Berger runs to the right, Eamon said Berger could cede the ideological middle ground to Hagan, giving her an opening.
And in that, seizing the middle may be the way to win an uncertain reelection race.
Wes Wolfe can be reached at 252-559-1075 or wes.wolfe@kinston.com. Follow him on Twitter @WolfeReports.